The Air Traffic Controller Shortage & DOGE Spending Cuts: Cause or Cure?
Investigators have yet to determine the causes of the recent airliner crashes. However, the persistent shortage of Air Traffic Controllers may have contributed to at least one of the recent crashes. Some people blame Elon Musk and President Trump for this shortage, because they recently moved to reduce the Federal workforce- through the new Department of Governmental Efficiency (DOGE). Other people blame Presidents Obama and Biden for hiring Air Traffic Controllers on the basis of DEI criteria.
A few facts regarding Air Traffic Controllers are clear. First, the number of Air Traffic Controllers during the Obama administration plunged (see the first graph below). Second, the number of Air Traffic Controllers during the first Trump Administration recovered. Third, number of Air Traffic Controllers during the Biden administration fluctuated, but fell during 2024.
There have been reports on Air Traffic Controller shortages for many years. The total number of flights was down when Biden entered office- due to the COVID 19 crisis. President Biden failed to increase the number of Air Traffic Controllers as the total number of post COVID flights predictably grew (see numbers on air travel here).
Most air traffic controllers in the US work for either the FAA or in the Military. Everyone knows that Biden went on a spending spree during his one term in office. The Biden administration most certainly had the money to hire more Air Controllers, and four years was enough time to allow for training many new Federally employed controllers. Biden went on a hiring spree, increased number of Federal employees to the highest level since 1994 (see the second graph below). That is, Biden deliberately chose to increase the Federal workforce, but not the number of Air Traffic Controllers.
There are other factors to consider. Artificial intelligence will make air travel safer, and may reduce the number of controllers needed. But there is still a current shortage of Air Traffic Controllers. The people who are assuming that Trump must have caused the recent crashes with some instant changes in the number of Air Traffic Controllers are doing so for partisan political reasons, and this is foolish. A quick examination of pertinent evidence indicates that Biden neglected shortages of Air Traffic Controllers, while he hired more Federal employees for various other purposes.
Economic inefficiency requires balancing of resources according to the urgency of different public needs. The shortage of Air Traffic Controllers may or may not have caused recent crashes, but the persistence of this shortage has put travelers at risk. The Trump Administration may, or may not, move to increase number of Air Traffic Controllers. But one thing is clear, the Federal government is too large and complex for one person or his cabinet to manage. President Biden was obviously distracted by so-called green issues, and this caused him to neglect many other issues. Nobody can be expected to keep track of all issues that exist throughout the Federal government, given its current size. What this all means is that Biden and his comrades do bear responsibility for believing in and overestimating their own ability to manage our unmanageably large welfare-regulatory state.
Spending and program cuts by DOGE, if done properly, would shrink the Federal government down to a more intelligent and manageable size. This is not to say that a shrunken Federal government would do a better job of managing air traffic control. Perhaps air traffic control should be run by a legally accountable private organization.
